Julian Brandt is a young German international winger who plays for Bayer Leverkusen. He is a 20 year old who has already played over 3,600 minutes of professional football in a top league, along with 700 minutes of European football. Brandt has represented Germany at every level from U15 to senior level and is European Golden Boy nominee this year. He is definitely a player to watch in the future.
GoalImpact is a good predictive and evaluative metric which is explained here. GoalImpact really rates Julian Brandt and predicts him to have a very lavish career ahead of him. He has improved dramatically recently and is a high quality player at the moment. As you can see in his graph he is predicted to be a top 75 player in the world at his peak at this point. But this may go up or down.
If you’ve read my previous pieces (my site) you’ll know I like the use of radars to evaluate player performance. In the 2014/15 season, as a 18 year old, Brandt played 1112 minutes for Leverkusen and produced this radar. Very impressive. His passing accuracy isn’t the best and would probably need improving. He also doesn’t shoot much at all. Whether he should shoot more is another question and depends on what he does with the ball, what his coach tells him to do and if he gets in good positions often enough. I don’t have that sort of context.
This second radar (right) is showing the 1626 minutes he played in the 2015/16 season. This butterfly shaped radar is impressive again but defensive contribution and shooting is lacking. But, again this could be reasoned by tactics, etc. He only took 30 shots over the season and largely over performed on conversion rate and xG efficiency, as you’ll see later. His successful dribble% must be quite low as he is dispossessed often and doesn’t dribble that much (successfully). He has a similar passing accuracy as the year before. He may be trying risky passes but may need to look to retain possession more.
Here you can see Julian Draxler’s radar when he was 20 and Leroy Sané’s last year as comparison to Brandt’s. Three great, young German players. There future looks good for Germany.
Here’s how he rates in G+A/90 against the top U21 players in Europe’s top 5 leagues in the 2015/16 season. The blue bar shows Brandt. He is only beaten by two players: Dembele and Deli Alli when looking at this statistic. For someone with low key pass and shot output his scoring contribution is very good and makes him stand out amongst the most talented U21 players in Europe.
Here is a shot chart I’ve made showing Brandt’s 30 shots from last season. He only made one header. Most of his shots are coming from the left and many in the DZ (I’ve written a bit about DZ here) and only the solitary shot in the six yard box. Looking at the bottom left he was extremely lucky and over performed greatly on xG with 1.93 xG efficiency. I’ve used this xG model for this data, it is a basic model just based on shot position so the values aren’t completely accurate.
To conclude, Julian Brandt is already a high quality player with lots of talent and I personally rate him highly – he is is one to watch. He will probably move to a bigger team in coming years and maybe the Premier League. He’s going to be in the German side for years to come. Below I’ve attached a few YouTube highlights clips of him if you’re interested.
This is my first piece on Chance Analytics, expect many more from me. If you’re interested in writing about stats or tactics contact firstname.lastname@example.org with your article and get good exposure.
All data from – WhoScored