Category Archives: Posts

A look at Graham Potter and his exciting Östersunds FK

When it comes to football and coaching, England’s trade deficit is less than ideal. People like  Arsène Wenger, José Mourinho, Mauricio Pochettino, Claudio Ranieri, Antonio Conte, Jürgen Klopp, Pep Guardiola and now Marco Silva have taken charge of Premier League clubs and have significantly improved their clubs’ fortunes. Right now, there are 16 non-English managers in the English Premier League.

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How in the World Does Nice Overperform Expected Goals? Part Two: The Attack

This is part two of a two-part series explaining how Lucien Favre’s Nice overperform expected goals, that cool new stat they show on MOTD, by a huge margin. Part one explained how Nice’s defence overperform expected goals against (xGA). In part two, I explain how Nice’s attack overperform expected goals for (xGF). Let’s jump right in.

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Understanding Zizou’s Success: How Squad Rotation Can Be studied

Vignesh Velu – @noobiefootball

I developed a model to study squad rotation. I looked into every team’s squad rotation in La Liga.

The playing time of players is always tricky. Too much players will end up having injuries or exhausted for the final stages. Too little it affects the players’ development or their confidence. It is always essential to find the right amount of minutes. They are not Supermen (apart from a few). It is a far more critical thing if you are in multiple competitions. A player becoming injured without a clear replacement will make it worse for teams.

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The Science Behind the Perfect Penalty

By Freddie Wilson – @thewonderofmu

The Placement of Penalties

The award of a penalty brings the expectation among fans of a goal, but what does the data tell us about the specific probabilities of success?

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A Pre-Season profile: Manchester City

By Alex Dodgshon

Does buying the most expensive ingredients make you a better meal?

Much of the talk of the summer transfer window has been about City’s big spending. Whilst comical comparisons have been made between City’s spending and some countries’ annual defence budget, these are fruitless when looking at Premier League revenue. The money is there to be spent, and it has been.

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2017/18 Season Preview – Leicester City

After the five years Leicester City fans have had you could forgive them for settling for a quiet season.

They have seen more drama than most fans experience in a lifetime. A quick recap: 2013 – Lose Championship playoff semi-final in the last minute after missing a penalty seconds before, 2014 – promoted to Premier League with 102 points, 2015 – win seven of last nine games to complete one of the greatest great escapes, 2016 – Premier League title by ten points, 2017 – Brush with relegation and Champions League quarter-final.

Exhausted? Well, it’s likely things will calm down this season as Craig Shakespeare starts his first full season as a manager. Aiming to improve on a mid-table finish, upper mid-table may be the best the club can hope for, as the top six looks increasingly like a closed shop.

In this preview, I’ll have a look at some of the numbers from last season, how the squad is shaping up, examine the transfer business and give my predictions for the upcoming season.

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How in the World Does Nice Overperform Expected Goals? Part One: The Defence

Part one of a two-part series. Here’s part two.

After a strong season under Claude Puel in 2016, finishing 4th, Nice got even stronger under the control of Swiss manager Lucien Favre, finishing 3rd in Ligue 1 and securing a Champions League qualifying berth in 2017. However, as a (self-professed) stats guy, I like to look at Expected Goals – soccer analytics’ most popular model – to see if the league table lies.

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