In today’s part of our odds compiling series, we’ll finally take a look at zeroing in on a closer xG numbers for the upcoming Premier League match in GW 34 between Liverpool and Palace using our 5 season data.
In my article posted the day before yesterday, I discussed why Real Madrid are excellent from set pieces. But can the set-up be broken with a few good plans? I certainly think so. It will require a lot of practice, and I’m not so sure anyone can stop Real Madrid from winning La Liga and possibly the Champions League this season, but it’s certainly worth a shot. Let me say at the outset that his article is inspired by Ted Knutson’s recent article on the same topic. Knutson and Thom Lawrence will be sharing their ideas with clubs through Statsbomb Services.
Three years ago, a team in Madrid scored 18 goals and conceded 6 from set pieces and beat Barcelona and Real Madrid to the Spanish La Liga title. While many small Premier League teams are famous for utilizing free-kicks, corners, and throw-ins, only Atlético Madrid have used set plays to win a title in a prestigious league. Diego Simeone’s team reached the final of the Champions League, too.
In Part V we are going to look at
refining our xGoals calculation building league tables and evaluating teams over/under performance. With games coming thick and fast this past week, I will wait for a lull in fixtures (after GW 32) to write about improving our xGoal calculations using Attack and Defence ratings.
In this part of our tutorial, we’ll be using our RANK function again to automate everything so it updates after every game week. We’ll also be learning about some metrics commonly used in fanalytics.
So far in this series we have looked at a basic way of estimating xGoals, using a Poisson Distribution, and Bookmaker margin. In Part IV we are going to take a look at using previous results as a way of deriving odds.
Article originally posted on 30th March 2017 here
In Part I of the series we looked getting data and some basic formulas. Part II looked at xGoals in more detail and a basic method of finding the expected number of goals scored between Liverpool and Everton. This method is by no means the end point and there is still some improvements to be made, but we’re beginning from scratch and we’ll come back to improving the numbers later on.