How to Compile Odds for Football: A Beginner’s Guide Part I – Getting Data and Finding xGoals

One question I get asked quite regularly is how I calculate my odds for football. There are many different methods I use, and I never rely on just one model, but I thought I’d share here a very simple method of compiling odds for football.

The difficulty with many of the advanced statistical models is that they use more advanced statistics such as x,y shot locations and other data that is not publicly available, or they use programs that may not be easily accessible to the average fan due to lack of coding knowledge – programmes such as R or Python come to mind. The model that I will walk you through here uses data that is publicly available and needs only a basic knowledge of Excel to build.

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The Best Full-back in the World: Emerson Palmieri

There is something about Brazil and great full-backs, isn’t there? Recent World Cup outings of Brazil often featured the greatest full-backs in the world, such as Carlos Alberto, Roberto Carlos, Cafu, Maicon, and Dani Alves. They practically redefined the position, making it more attacking-oriented and creative.  Even now, the full-back position is ruled by brilliant Brazilians. Marcelo, an aging Dani Alves, Danilo, and Alex Sandro are some well-known full-backs.

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PROSPECT | Allan Saint-Maximin

From St Etienne’s most hyped wonderkid in recent years, to AS Monaco, then being loaned to Hannover 96 and now, Bastia. It has been a rugged journey for Allan Saint-Maximin. Exuberant, flamboyant and hungry, yet rough and rogue couldn’t be a truer description for the Monaco loanee.

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Who Should Have Replaced Payet?

As a Premier League neutral West Ham are usually one of my favourite teams, especially last season. I felt for West Ham fans when Dimitri Payet chose to force a move away from West London. Robert Snodgrass was brought in in January as his replacement, or close to. In this article I’ve used some simple data scouting using KPIs (Key Performance Indicators) that I’d look for if I was recruiting for West Ham.

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Martial Art – Anthony Martial Performance Analysis

Since Anthony Martial’s big money move from Monaco to Manchester United in 2015 for £60 million, if add-on clauses are met, he hasn’t met the price tag yet.. I want to investigate how much of an impact Martial has actually had in his time in Manchester through this statistical profile. But, it’s worth remembering that Martial is just 21 years old.

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Why are City struggling at the back?

By Matt Allen@MattAllen001

In this piece I will discuss some of the defensive issues that Man City have been having this season. Pep Guardiola has already written his team out of the title race this season and this comes after a patch of poor form culminating most recently with a 4-0 loss at Everton. There are several reasons that city’s defensive form have been poor this season which I will outline below.

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AFCON – Quarter Final Preview (Part 2)

By Alarico Rossi – @AlaricoRossi

 

Yesterday we previewed the quarter-final games of Burkina Faso v Tunisia & Senegal v Cameroon. Have a read here.

Today we are previewing the next two quarter-finals; Egypt v Morocco & Congo DR v Ghana.

Continue reading AFCON – Quarter Final Preview (Part 2)

A football analytics think-tank, containing articles written by aspiring analysts. Our aim is to offer football analytics enthusiasts the chance to get wider exposure.

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