Let’s start with a statement that looks pretty obvious: Liverpool have an awful defense.
While it may look like their bad defense is down to the incompetence of Liverpool’s individual defenders, it’s largely down to the high-pressing system favored by Jurgen Klopp that’s gone awry this season. When the first line of press is broken (which has happened many times this season), the ball gets into dangerous areas because of the vacant spaces left behind. This leads to tricky situations for the Liverpool backline.
Continue reading Finding Liverpool a Good Keeper
There are many approaches to visualising shot location data. It can be tricky finding the right balance between the amount of information on display and the ease of use or intuitiveness. There is a plethora of categories and subcategories that can be considered such as the player taking the shot, the danger of the shot and whether the shot resulted in a goal.
Continue reading Exploring the uses of clustering: Individual Shot Cluster Zones
In Part I we looked at gathering and cleaning data from football-data.co.uk, and building our first basic table. In this part we’ll discuss xGoals in a bit more detail and run through our first method for calculating odds, using the upcoming game between Liverpool and Everton.
Continue reading How to Compile Odds for Football: A Beginner’s Guide Part II – More on xGoals and Our First Match
This is going to be a short article about a metric I thought of today, similar to TSR. I want to keep it short and sweet, so enjoy.
Total Shots Ratio (TSR) is a metric I’ve written about here. It is an commonly used metric as it has a strong correlation with Goal Difference and points. If you outshoot your opponents you’re likely to win. It is also useful to use in match predictions. I recommend you read the article linked above to understand it if you’re not familiar with it.
Continue reading A TSR Variation – DZTSR
Expected goals (xG) is a tool to value the probability of a shot resulting in a goal. Each xG value is the chance of that shot being scored. For example: 0.156 xG = 15.6% likelihood of that shot being scored. By having a database of shots a xG model will work out how important each variable is in a shot being scored. The database takes into account a variety of variables of the shot which will be covered later.
Continue reading Expected Goals Explained (xG)
Premier League top scorer after 12 games. Scoring in 9 consecutive games, breaking the Premier League record for one season. Transfer rumours to Liverpool, Spurs, Man United, Dortmund, Barcelona and Real Madrid. Fantasy Football star and one of the most talked about players in the Premier League at the moment, famous for his non-league roots. And now valued at £15 million. How good is he?
Continue reading Jamie Vardy – Overrated?
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