Tag Archives: Overperform

How in the World Does Nice Overperform Expected Goals? Part Two: The Attack

This is part two of a two-part series explaining how Lucien Favre’s Nice overperform expected goals, that cool new stat they show on MOTD, by a huge margin. Part one explained how Nice’s defence overperform expected goals against (xGA). In part two, I explain how Nice’s attack overperform expected goals for (xGF). Let’s jump right in.

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How in the World Does Nice Overperform Expected Goals? Part One: The Defence

Part one of a two-part series. Here’s part two.

After a strong season under Claude Puel in 2016, finishing 4th, Nice got even stronger under the control of Swiss manager Lucien Favre, finishing 3rd in Ligue 1 and securing a Champions League qualifying berth in 2017. However, as a (self-professed) stats guy, I like to look at Expected Goals – soccer analytics’ most popular model – to see if the league table lies.

Continue reading How in the World Does Nice Overperform Expected Goals? Part One: The Defence