Tag Archives: xG

How in the World Does Nice Overperform Expected Goals? Part Two: The Attack

This is part two of a two-part series explaining how Lucien Favre’s Nice overperform expected goals, that cool new stat they show on MOTD, by a huge margin. Part one explained how Nice’s defence overperform expected goals against (xGA). In part two, I explain how Nice’s attack overperform expected goals for (xGF). Let’s jump right in.

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How in the World Does Nice Overperform Expected Goals? Part One: The Defence

Part one of a two-part series. Here’s part two.

After a strong season under Claude Puel in 2016, finishing 4th, Nice got even stronger under the control of Swiss manager Lucien Favre, finishing 3rd in Ligue 1 and securing a Champions League qualifying berth in 2017. However, as a (self-professed) stats guy, I like to look at Expected Goals – soccer analytics’ most popular model – to see if the league table lies.

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An Introduction to Expected Saves (xS)

By Raven Beale – @sbourgenforcer

I’m not sure if someone has already written about this or not. If you have, credit to you!

This article assumes an understanding of the flagship metric of the analytics movement xG (Expected Goals). I would advise reading this, this, and this if you are not familiar with the concept.

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